“The Director will not like your report”, said Eleanor. “What you propose is insane. How the hell are you going to sell that shit to anyone?”
“The numbers are all there, Eleanor”, I replied. “I don’t like what they say either, but I’ve run them a hundred times with deviations on the scenarios and the results are the same – plus or minus five percent.”
“Plus or minus 50 million,” she said. “That just can’t be true, Adam. Did you use the standard projection algorithms?”
“And the advanced, and the experimental, and the old ones. They all gave essentially the same answer. All of the projections eventually converged within five percent of each other. Three tracks came in less than one percent apart.
“These numbers are as solid as our computers can make them. Is this unbelievable? Is this totally insane? Is it a ride on the WT&F? Hell yes. I wish they weren’t.”
The comm on Eleanor’s desk beeped. “He will see you now. I don’t know if I should wish you good luck or not.”
I smiled at Eleanor and replied “I don’t know either.”
I entered the Director’s office and walked up to the desk.
“Projection Statistician Adam Mackensie sir.”
“Sit down, Mr. MacKensie”, said the Director. “This is one hell of a projection you have here,” he said, holding up the data pad on which I could see my report. “Where the hell did you get this from?”
“The upcoming year is a major inflection point in some major countries. We know many of the current actors will be contending for power. While the behavior of some of these individuals is difficult to project, a distribution analysis of their past actions does provide a basis for calculating their future actions.”
“You mention here that psychological aspects of the prime individual remain a wild card in these calculations. Explain.”
“Psychological aspects are a wild card because there is no accepted method for factoring them into the projection process. Several experimental frameworks exist but they appear to have very little shared theory and processes – no easily located common ground. For that reason I have not included such data into my projections. However as noted in footnote four, one reasonable approximation of psychological aspects of individuals can be to increase the randomness factor in certain modelings. I have done so for data sets six, eight and nine, for which this idea appears most applicable. The original computations are, of course, also included.”
“I noticed that. Your randomization factoring gives some very interesting and also disturbing results. In fact I find all your results disturbing. If true, these projections are extremely disturbing. If not true, then this deviation from your usual standard of work is disturbing.”
“I understand,” I replied. “I hope these numbers are wrong, that I missed something important, that I made an impulsive conclusion which is not really backed by the data. I am very disturbed by these projections.
“But I know that just because I am not sure about a projection, that does not mean it should be dismissed. Even if what I learn from it is what not to do in the future, all projections have value, even if they are wrong.”
The Director leaned back in his chair, listening. After an eternal few seconds of silence, he leaned forward, placing his arms on the desk.
“I believe that you believe your projections. I find no procedural or process errors in your computations. I have no objections to your source data, though I think some of it is well outside our usual information acquisition channels, but that is how we get answers – ‘Listen To Everything’.
“You are not the first Projection Statistician to bring me a report like this. Two others very similar have landed on my desk in the last three months. They were also disturbing and in places, terrifying.
“Now I have three data points – although your projection is not as … colorful as one your colleague’s. But they all say essentially the same thing.”
“Thank you sir,” I replied. “It is reassuring to know that others have followed the bread crumb trail and reached the same destination.”
“Now,” the Directory continued, “About this possible ‘adjustment’ of yours. No one else has suggested much in the way of revectoring their projections – such things are usually way above the paygrade of a Projection Statistician.”
“Indeed so, sir. I assure you that my projections were not influenced by my theoretical adjustments. The adjustments are the product of counter-scenario infraction point analysis. “
“Yes, I recognized the structure of the adjustment scenario. But this is the most extraordinary adjustment I have ever seen. It is also the most unbelievable and horrible one I have seen.”
“Yes sir, I am aware that this may fall into the category of world-wide effect with long-term alteration of societal and economic structures.”
“Well, that’s one way of saying it. I trust you know what happened the last time an adjustment of this type was employed. It was meant to quickly end a terrible war but indirectly caused another more horrible and murderous war. I’m not sure we made the right choice.”
“I agree that the 1918 adjustment had severe unexpected consequences. As did those of 1940 and 1943. I am fully aware of the hubris of attempting such large scale adjustments. Understand that I would not have even worked on a counter-action had not the conclusions of all these projections converged at the same place at slightly different times.”
“This idea of yours would.. “
“Cause considerable damage and losses, but still orders of magnitude less than the projections.”
“I am not sure that I can agree with you on that,” said the Director. “Our goal is to avoid as much trouble as possible, to smooth the road as well as we can – fill the holes, remove the rocks, put up guard rails. We don’t blow up the road.”
“I consider this placing tire spikes on the road,” I replied. “We can see the bus weaving from side to side at a dangerous speed. We know the driver is reckless and none of the passengers who can speak to him will be listened to.
“I am telling you that the bus is soon going to take out a guard rail and crash into the ravine, killing many and wounding more. Ripping up the tires will not stop the bus, but they won’t be going fast enough to breach the guard rails. Yes,the bus will be damaged and quite likely a number of the passengers killed, but more will walk away than be carried and the driver will be pulled from behind the wheel.”
“Are you sure about that?” asked the Director.
“No way in hell,” I replied. “The probability distribution here is totally insane. A million things could go wrong – and the outcome would still be better than letting the bus fall down the cliff.”
“You estimate the loss at about 1.3 billion, plus or minus 50 million. Your adjustment comes in at about 10 to 12 million. Still a lot.”
“The difference between going over the edge and smacking up against the guard rail. I am not happy with any of those numbers. I don’t want any of them to be right – I want them all to be so damn small that everyone gives me shit about it.”
The Director is quiet for another eternity.
“Adam, I believe your projections. Your work is as solid as anything I have seen in years. So is the work of your colleagues who came to the same conclusion. If things continue as they are, certain powers will consider themselves totally unrestrained. What is already bad for many will become horrible. It will only take a small match to start a huge fire.”
“And finally the long knives,” I said. “Eight-nine percent probability of another world war within three years. At best there would be about 100 million dead during the first week. Then more war, more bombings, more genocide, more dying of a rampant contagion. Hundreds of millions die in the vacuum where governments used to be. My number of 1.3 billion sounds insane, but every projection gets there within twelve months of the war starting.”
“But your way could also kill millions”, said the Director. “Do you really believe that this would properly adjust the vector?”
“All evidence indicates that Actor One would fail to manage such a crisis, bringing forth a chaotic response that would cause great suffering and damage and that would be enough.”
“Have you considered the unexpected side effects or consequences of this plan?”
“All that I can without trying to factor in more psychological vectors. But yes, there will be unexpected side effects. There always are.”
“Sometimes the ‘side effects’ are more important and more remembered than the actual actions taken. And more deadly.”
“Yes sir, there are a lot of wildcards in this game, and we don’t even know how many cards are in the deck, much less who is the dealer. We will have to deal with that when it comes up.”
“Not ‘if’?”
“We both know the answer to that,” I said.
“How do you get the tacks on the road?” asked the Director.
“The same way you always do – let people do what people do, despite being told how bad or dangerous it is. But we will have to do a nudge here and there to keep up the momentum. We both know that won’t take more than a couple of months. And we have less than a month to take action.”
“Why hasn’t this crossed my desk earlier?”
“I did not believe that a projection of this grave a nature should be presented without at least the outline of a possible adjustment or revectoring. I ran many scenarios, tweaking the parameters to come up with something better. Time has run out for that.”
“We already have an adjustment scheduled for this situation. Are you suggesting that we not carry that out and let events take their course? That is what you appear to be saying.”
“That is the essence of my counter-scenario.”
“Take no action and have millions die?”
“Making this adjustment now may save millions in the short run, but increases the probability of losing billions later,” I replied. “I do not take this lightly, sir. You have examined my projections. I would be gratified if you would tell me where I am wrong.”
“I also want these to be wrong,” said the Director. “I fear that they are and fear that they are not. What I don’t yet know is which fear is greater, which risk matrix to accept.”
Yes you do, I told myself. You know damn well which bucket of shit is the biggest. You just can’t bring yourself to say so.
The Director rose from his chair and I did likewise. We shook hands and I turned to leave. I was just about at the door when he spoke to me again.
“You are right. That son-of-a-bitch is going to get us all killed. This is an insane way to get rid of him, but I haven’t yet been presented with an idea that isn’t a hell of a lot messier. It may be that we sacrifice the lives of millions now rather than lose billions later. We shouldn’t have that power. No one should have that power. Only God should have that power, and oh are we not presumptuous to believe that we are fit to wield it.”
“This was not what I signed up for either,” I said. “Maybe we are better off not knowing?”
“You and I know that is bullshit.”
I nodded in agreement.
“I dare not authorize this, you know that?”
“Yes sir, I know that.’
“What would it take?”
“All you need is a living body in the right place at the right time,” I said.
“Aren’t you due for some time off? You have been working very hard. Take a trip – see some exotic corner of the world. And then go to Europe, Russia – take the Grand Tour.”
“Thank you sir, but although I do not complain about my compensation, such an undertaking is well beyond my means.”
“That can be managed, Mr. Mackensie. That can be managed.”
The look on the Director’s face stifled any questions I might have had. I understood. Oh fucking hell I understood.
“Yes sir, good day sir.” I walked out the door of the Director’s office and heard it close behind me.
“How did it go?” asked Eleanor. “Still got your job?”
I looked her in the eyes. Within seconds she understood. Her face went pale.
“Oh shit”, she said.
“Oh shit,” I replied.
Shouter to Dead Parrots 